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☆ Joseph Stiglitz on why America's appetite for Trump endures
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

If Trump is elected again, Stiglitz said, he could well pull support for Ukraine, sending grain prices soaring. For Stiglitz, the 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, America's appetite for Trump can be traced back a little more than four decades ago to the election of Ronald Reagan. "We've had 40 years of a neoliberal experiment: Strip away the regulations and lower the taxes — taxes are much lower than they used to be. But Komlos and Stiglitz don't place blame solely on Reagan for the growing economic inequality. Every European country that's had a wealth tax has walked away from it, by and large."

Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Stiglitz, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, —, that's, Reagan, We've, Dina Litovsky, Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, That's, Stiglitz doesn't, John Komlos, Komlos, Joe, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Barack Obama, insurrectionists, Desmond Lachman, Carter, Douglas Holtz, Eakin, George W, John McCain's, Holtz, America Stiglitz, Hayek, Friedman, Claudia Sahm, you've, what's Organizations: Columbia Business School, Business, Capitol, Biden, Trump, :, Good Society, America's, Federal Reserve, Budget, Bank, University of Munich, Duke University, University of North, Democratic, North American Free Trade, World Trade Organization, American Enterprise Institute, Bush's, Economic Advisers Locations: Manhattan, Ukraine, Russia, China, Beijing, Taiwan, University of North Carolina, Spain, America

☆ A 32-year market vet warns the S&P 500 is set to fall 50%-70% in the years ahead with valuations at historic highs — and says that an imminently weakening labor market will be the catalyst for the cra
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's

☆ The inventor of a famed recession indicator says many state-level warning signs are less dire when you factor in immigration
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule has triggered in 20 states. "The increase in unemployment rates stem partly from the strength of the economy the past few years," Sahm wrote. AdvertisementA historically accurate recession indicator is flashing across the country, but immigration trends leave no reason to worry, Claudia Sahm, the signal's founder, wrote in Bloomberg. The so-called Sahm Rule has flashed red in 20 states, she says, and would indicate a recession has arrived. It triggers when the unemployment rate's three-month average climbs 50 points above a 12-month low.

Persons: Sahm, —, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Immigrants, Service, Bloomberg, Business

☆ A surprise recession could strike after an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An unexpected rise in the unemployment rate suggests a surprise recession could hit the US economy, according to David Rosenberg. The unemployment rate is now 0.5 percentage points above its cycle low to 3.9%, which Rosenberg says is a worrying sign. Rosenberg's concern stems from the February jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly rise to 3.9% from 3.7%. AdvertisementBut the Sahm Rule isn't triggered until the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points or more above its low over the past year, not the absolute unemployment rate. But the rise in the unemployment rate is not the only factor concerning Rosenberg.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Claudia Sahm, isn't, Sahm, subsector

☆ Premarket stocks: Fed Chair Powell is about to get grilled by Congress. Here’s what markets want to hear
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to provide more insight when he testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Those reports pushed back market bets on when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. Investors will closely listen for any hints from Powell about what the Fed is looking for, data-wise, before it begins to lower interest rates. Powell will also be asked about the economic pain Americans are feeling as a result of elevated inflation and interest rates. When interest rates fall, holding income-paying assets (like bonds) becomes less appealing than owning the precious metal.

Persons: Jerome Powell, there’s, ”, Powell, —, Emanuel Cleaver, Dave Sekera, Claudia Sahm, ” Powell, Krystal Hur, Samantha Murphy Kelly, “, ” Mengmeng Zhang Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Investors, Missouri Democrat, Politico, Morningstar, Morningstar . New York Community Bank, Fitch, Moody’s Investors Service, Federal Reserve, Costco, Apple, Counterpoint Research, Huawei, Counterpoint Locations: New York, Missouri, Morningstar ., China

☆ A hot economy isn't a good reason for the Fed to 'drag its feet' on rate cuts, former central bank economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed adds to recessionary risk if it stalls rate cuts, Claudia Sahm wrote in the Financial Times. AdvertisementStrong labor and inflation conditions shouldn't stall interest rate cuts, and a higher-for-longer policy only compounds distress in the US economy, Claudia Sahm wrote in the Financial Times. We are so close to unwinding the final Covid disruptions," the former central bank economist wrote. "Now it is not the time for the central bank to drag its feet on rate cuts. But the world has changed with notable disinflation, and the Fed is not changing its policy," she wrote.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, It's, Sahm Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Federal, Fed

☆ Renowned economist Claudia Sahm breaks down why her famous recession indicator won't be triggered this year — and why the last mile of the Fed's inflation battle could be the easiest
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewClaudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist who developed the Sahm Rule recession indicator, believes the US economy will likely avoid a downturn this year. We solved the labor shortage by getting more labor," Sahm said. "The foreign-born labor force has made a disproportionate contribution to reducing the jobs-workers gap. This has been driven by two factors: above-trend immigration growth and greater foreign-born labor force participation," said Jan Hatzius, the chief US economist at Goldman Sachs, in an August 2023 client note. "Growth in the foreign-born labor force has accelerated by 50k to 160k per month this year, lifted by a surging foreign-born labor force participation rate," Hatzius added.

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, doesn't, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, National Bureau of Economic, US, Labor, Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed Locations: flatlining

☆ Google's layoffs already impacted its culture. Now they're affecting its bottom line.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In today's big story, we're looking at highlights from two of the world's biggest tech companies' earnings reports, including how much layoffs cost for one of them. Tech: Tech CEOs will testify before Congress today for a hearing on child safety. Mateusz Wlodarczyk/Getty ImagesThere's been plenty of speculation about what Google's mass layoffs last year meant for its famous culture. Jerod Harris/Getty ImagesCongress is set to grill some of the biggest names in tech today. Leaders from Meta, X, TikTok, and other tech companies will face questions over their platforms' efforts to protect children from sexual exploitation online.

Persons: It's, Sundar Pichai, Mateusz Wlodarczyk, Sarah Jackson, Satya Nadella Stephen Brashear, Hisham Ibrahim, Jerome Powell's, Claudia Sahm, Powell, Linda Yaccarino, Jerod Harris, Linda Yaccarino's, Jack Dorsey's Block, Dorsey, Brooks Kraft, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Business, Tech, Google, Microsoft, Getty, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Meta, Elon Musk's, Brooks Kraft LLC, Los Angeles Times, UPS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Amazon, Boeing, Mastercard Locations: Chipotle, New York, London

☆ Famed economist Claudia Sahm shares 2 things to watch for at the Fed policy meeting this week — and why the central bank should start cutting rates soon despite a seemingly strong economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

At its December meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could institute up to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. The first thing Sahm said to look out for is whether or not Powell makes clear that they will not cut rates at the March meeting. If he seems upbeat, it could indicate that the Fed is going to take a more dovish stance and cut rates on the earlier side. This would likely manifest via trouble in financial markets that then affects the real economy. They're taking some big risks in that they're talking about the real economy being resilient, and yet I don't think that's where — if the Fed causes a problem they're doing it in the real economy first," she said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Powell, Stocks, — Organizations: Louis, Business, National Bureau of Economic, Fed Locations: St, Sahm

A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans' inflation expectations have reached their lowest point in nearly three years. Economists say consumers appear to be responding to steadily slower inflation, higher incomes, lower gas prices and a rising stock market. What's more, paychecks have outpaced inflation over the past year, thereby easing Americans' adjustment to a higher cost of living. Political Cartoons View All 253 ImagesEven with the steady slowdown in inflation, prices are still nearly 17% higher than they were three years ago, a source of discontent for many Americans. It would be too painful.”Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and also a former Fed economist, acknowledged that "people are angry” about higher prices.

Persons: Joe Biden's, What's, ”, Grace Zwemmer, Marshall, “, Dana Smith, Smith, Ryan Cummings, ” Cummings, Biden, Robert Shiller, David Andolfatto, “ Let’s, Claudia Sahm, Josh Boak Organizations: WASHINGTON, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal, Oxford Economics, Marshall, Trump, Democratic, Fed, University of Miami, Sahm Consulting Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Atlanta, Matthews , North Carolina, Charlotte, Washington

☆ The Fed itself is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed

☆ Don't worry about US debt because household wealth is 4 times bigger, former Fed economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US debt worries are overblown, former Fed economist Claudia Sahm wrote in Bloomberg. Household wealth stands at $142 trillion, a massive resource to fund debt, she said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS national debt recently topped a record $34 trillion, but worries over its size are misguided, former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm wrote in a Bloomberg op-ed. "Yes, $34 trillion is big number, but $142 trillion is even bigger and much more important because it represents the total wealth of Americans —a massive resource that helps fund government debt and deficits," she said.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, — Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal, Business

☆ 'We are at the very onset of a recession right now': A top Wall Street strategist shares a 'huge red flag' signaling the economy is heading into a downturn — sending stocks tumbling as much as 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America

☆ Markets are cheering the prospect of rate cuts next year, but it's a double-edged sword
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But that's a tricky situation for investors, as cuts would likely come in response to a slowing economy. Rate cuts aren't inherently bullish and signs emerging that the economy is slowing into year-end. AdvertisementMarkets are cheering the possibility the Federal Reserve could begin slashing interest rates next year, but rate cuts are a double-edged sword, Wall Street experts are warning, because of what the move would signal about the broader economy. But rate cuts may not be the decidedly bullish catalyst markets are hoping for. AdvertisementMarkets have been eyeing a Fed rate cut to trigger a bullish rally in stocks.

Persons: —, we've, Paul McCulley, Chris Grisanti, We're, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Reserve, Fed, CNBC, Mai Capital Management, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Atlanta Fed

☆ Signs of a recession may be on the horizon, says fmr. Fed economist Claudia Sahm
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSigns of a recession may be on the horizon, says fmr. Fed economist Claudia SahmClaudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the state of the economy, the outlook for inflation, and more.

Persons: fmr, Claudia Sahm Claudia Sahm Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ 2 recession indicators are close to flashing. Here's why investors can still rest easy for now.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Two recession indicators are on the verge of flashing as the unemployment rate ticks higher and the yield curve uninverts. "With labor supply increasing, we're not sure the Sahm rule, even if it triggers, would really be indicative of a recession." AdvertisementAdvertisementThere are two recession indicators that are on the verge of flashing, but even if they do flash stock market investors can rest easy. Last month, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up 50 basis points from its cycle low of 3.4% in April. "That's why a small increase in the unemployment rate can be really bad news, because it keeps going," she explained.

Persons: we're, —, Carson, Sonu Varghese, Sahm, Claudia Sahm, Varghese Organizations: Service, CNBC, Treasury

☆ U.S. employers added 150,000 jobs last month, falling short of forecasts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

“This is mildly concerning but for now, these are still strong numbers,” said Sonu Varghese, chief market strategist at Carson Group, an asset management firm. The October numbers may have been held down because the survey was taken during major work stoppages — notably the strikes by the United Automobile Workers and related layoffs. has reached tentative contract agreements with the three major U.S. automakers and told striking members to return to their jobs. Some 96,000 people reported being out of work because of a strike or labor dispute in October, the most since 1997. But she added that unemployment would have to tick higher over a longer horizon for it to be clear that recession risks were heightened.

Persons: ”, Sonu Varghese, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Carson Group, United Automobile Workers, Federal Reserve

☆ What higher-for-longer Fed policy will mean for the markets and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke to the press after the two-day session ended, "Resetting market expectations about real rates was his most important mission," Colas said. But this week's meeting indicated that Fed officials expect rates to stay higher for longer. The thinking there is that if inflation moves lower, the Fed won't need to keep nominal rates as high because real rates will be rising. "But, until one or both of those things happen, higher real rates are the Fed's strategy to tame inflation," Colas said. "This tells us that current equity market churn is unlikely to end until bond markets have settled out."

Persons: wasn't, Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, Krishna Guha, Claudia Sahm, Guha, Powell, Powell's, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Goldman doesn't, Mericle, DataTrek's Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, Companies, Evercore ISI, U.S ., Fed

☆ Why the Fed's interest rate move may hinge on inflation expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Andrea Miller | In Dreajmiller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. seemed to be winning its battle against inflation, but the latest consumer price index data showed inflation rose more than expected. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment August survey indicated consumers' one-year inflation expectations were at 3.3%, marking three consecutive months of stability. Inflation expectations, or the rate at which consumers expect prices to rise or fall in the future, can influence higher prices in the economy. Inflation expectations play a crucial role in the decisions made by the Federal Reserve. But consumer expectations of inflation are still above the Fed's 2% inflation rate target.

Persons: Joanne Hsu, It's, Hsu, Claudia Sahm, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Barry Glassman Organizations: University of Michigan, The University of, Consumers, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Sahm Consulting, Federal, Kansas City, Wealth Services Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

As a result, they’re almost sure to leave their key interest rate unchanged when their meeting ends Wednesday. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, said she thinks a “soft landing,” in which the Fed manages to curb inflation without causing a recession, remains possible. But she cautioned that inflation might stay higher for longer than the central bank expects. Or, she suggested, the cumulative effects of the Fed's 11 rate hikes could ultimately tip the economy into recession. “I expect we’ll need to hold rates at restrictive levels for some time,” said Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Persons: they’re, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, ” Sahm, “ They’re, ”, Christopher Waller, Powell, “, They're, Jose Torres, Susan Collins, Lorie Logan, William English Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Wall Street, Fed, Fed's, Governors, CNBC, Interactive, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Dallas Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, “, Yale School of Management Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Ukraine, U.S

Forecasts from the 18 policymakers were varied, however, with seven policymakers seeing a higher appropriate stopping point for rates. The benchmark rate is seen ending next year at 4.3%, based on the median projection. In December Fed policymakers thought 2023 would end with the Fed policy rate at 5.1%, before dropping to 4.1% in 2024. Policymakers expect their interest-rate hikes to push the unemployment rate, now at 3.6%, to 4.5% in the last quarter of 2023, and to 4.6% in 2024. Wednesday's projections show Fed policymakers have become slightly more pessimistic about the outlook for the economy, with a median projection for GDP growth this year of 0.4%, versus December's expectation for 0.5%.

☆ Can the Fed help fend off a banking crisis while also cooling the economy?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

To stave off the latter, the Fed offered a solution that seemingly contradicted its hawkish flight path: looser purse-strings. That means the Fed can still fight the battle against inflation even while it shores up the banking sector. Although the Fed’s new program is an extraordinary action to ensure bank stability, the Fed is engaged in the lending business every day, Brusuelas noted. “The Fed buys and sells government securities each day to maintain the range of its policy rate — the federal funds rate — between 4.5% and 4.75%,” he said. Once that returns, the central bank can shift its focus back to restoring price stability, he said.

☆ Takeaways from the February jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —February’s jobs report had a little something for everyone. In February, the construction industry added 24,000 jobs, marking 12 consecutive months of employment growth. Friday’s report showed that “a modicum of slack crept back into the jobs market,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. However, Friday’s jobs report likely won’t spur a more dovish turn from the Fed, said Sean Snaith, an economist and director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We didn’t go from a four-alarm fire to a five-alarm fire with this data report, but the inflation flames aren’t out either,” he wrote in a note Friday.

☆ New Fed research flags rising risk of U.S. recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The paper’s authors said that the unemployment rate bottoms out and begins to move higher ahead of recession in a highly reliable pattern. When this shift occurs the unemployment rate is signaling the onset of recession in about eight months, the paper said. The San Francisco Fed research, written by bank economist Thomas Mertens, said its innovation is to make the jobless rate change a forward-looking indicator. The San Francisco Fed paper noted that the Fed, as of its December forecasts, sees the unemployment rate rising next year amid its campaign of aggressive rate hikes aimed at cooling high levels of inflation. In 2023, the Fed sees the jobless rate jumping up to 4.6% in a year where it sees only modest levels of overall growth.

☆ Fed policymakers see interest rates higher, for longer
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In September they thought 2023 would end with the Fed policy rate at 4.6%. Meanwhile policymakers expect their interest-rate hikes to push the unemployment rate, now at 3.7%, to 4.6% in the final quarter of 2023, and stay there through 2024. By one measure, known as the Sahm Rule for former Fed staffer Claudia Sahm, an increase of that magnitude in the unemployment rate likely signals a recession. Wednesday's projections show Fed policymakers have become more pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth, with a median projection for GDP growth next year of 0.5%, versus September's expectation for 1.2%. Two Fed policymakers see the economy shrinking next year.

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